The Miami Heat were a mess in 2024-25. The Jimmy Butler divorce paired with a lot of losing in the second half of the regular season culminated with an ugly four-game sweep out of the Eastern Conference playoffs via the Cleveland Cavaliers. The latter part of the regular season for the Heat was… weird. At one point, the Heat lost ten in a row. Then they rattled off six wins in a row. Strange.
What do we make of the Heat going into 2025-26? Is a team built around Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro enough to compete in the east? Not necessarily, but Zach Lowe thinks expectations have gotten too low for the Heat. On a recent podcast discussing 2025-26 “Eastern Conference Tiers,” Zach Lowe gave his opinion on the Heat for the upcoming season.
“Miami is the team that I am wildly out of place on compared to Vegas. Compared to expectations. Their over/under right now is 38.5. Their odds to win the east are down there with Toronto.”
Coming off a 37-45 season, expectations are low for the Heat. Most sportsbooks have the Heat sitting at 38.5 on its over/under regular season win total. Since Spoelstra became the coach of the Heat back in 2008, the Heat have only won fewer than 40 games three times.
“What i see there is depth. I don’t see a huge amount of upside…I see depth. I see IQ. I see an elite coach.”
The Norman Powell signing is notable. Powell was excellent for the Clipper last season averaging 21.8 points with 41.8% shooting from behind the arc. Powell – one of the league’s best three-point shooters – adds another very reliable option for this Heat roster.
“Depth is very powerful in the regular season. Coaching is very powerful in the regular season.”
“I see a formula – which this team has an over/under of 38.5 – is 45-37 and gets the sixth seed. I just think they’re better than Boston. I think they’re better than Indiana.”
The Miami Heat will enter the 2025-26 season without the Jimmy Butler drama. They have a decent core with added depth and some of the best infrastructure and coaching in the league. I’m with Lowe. This isn’t a 50+ win team, but I have a hard time seeing fewer than 40 wins. Take the over.