The overall consensus entering the 2025-26 NBA season is that the Toronto Raptors won’t be very good despite an incredibly expensive roster. Each of Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett will earn at least $27 million in the 2025-26 season. Three of those four are on escalating salary contracts through at least the 2027-28 season. Jakob Poeltl will also make $19.5M, $19.5M, $27.3M and $29.5M over the next four seasons. In other words, this team better be pretty good.
But will they? Most NBA watchers don’t love the fit of their marquee (and expensive) players. Scottie Barnes is a really interesting and talented NBA player, but you can make the case that his cost and surrounding talent is maybe as bad as it gets. Scottie Barnes making $25M instead of $39M-$48M (wow!) surrounded by shooters? Yeah, that’s interesting. But Ingram, Barrett and Quickley is just a bit odd.
Now, The Ringer’s Michael Pina is zagging. “I think the Toronto Raptors will be pretty good! Like, “top-six seed, make the playoffs, threaten to make some noise in the first round” good!”
Some of his argument rests on the major offseason narrative that the NBA’s Eastern Conference will be a mess this year, mostly because two of its best teams have its stars nursing torn achilles tendons. But put me in the camp that says the East will not be a dumpster fire. The Knicks, Cavaliers and Magic will all be very good teams with real top end talent in Jalen Brunson, Paolo Banchero and others.
FanDuel has Toronto with the 11th best odds to win the East. In other words, they expect Toronto to not make the play-in game. FanDuel also has Toronto’s over/under win total set at 37.5 wins. I think that sounds about right.